Economic Observation Network reporter Ouyang Xiaohong "From the perspective of the overall development situation of the world economy, the Japanese earthquake cannot change the basic trend of the global economic recovery." On March 19, Chen, Vice President of the China International Finance Society and the president of Beijing Foreign Studies University, Yu Lu said at the academic seminar on the "Global Economic Impact of the Great Earthquake in Japan".

The academic seminar jointly sponsored by the Beijing Foreign Studies University Public Foreign Foreign Diplomacy Research Center and the Renmin University of China International Monetary Research Institute was held at Beijing University of Foreign Languages ​​University. Experts and scholars from the People's Bank of China, Renmin University of China, Beijing Foreign Studies University, and other units participated in the discussion.

In Chen Yulu's view, if the factors of discharge of nuclear leaks are excluded, according to the general principle of disaster economics, the impact of the Japanese earthquake on the global economy should be controllable. In other words, the economic growth created by the reconstruction after the disaster is usually comparable to the cost of resetting costs of public facilities, residential residences, and productive assets, and the loss of corporate operations. At the same time Judging from the overall development situation, the Japanese earthquake cannot change the basic trend of the global economic recovery.

However, "the Japanese earthquake cannot be ignored on the short -term impact of global economy and finance, and we need to deal with and prevent it." Chen Yulu said. His logic is that, on the one hand, in developed economies, the haze of the international financial crisis is gradually getting rid of the haze of the international financial crisis, entering the normal track of the economic recovery, and the inflation rate is generally low. Under the circumstances, as the main importing countries such as global liquidity, the main importing countries such as energy, food, iron ore and other commodities, Japan's strong quantitative loose currency policy adopted to implement crisis rescue will bring Big inflation pressure;

On the other hand, Japan has a unique economic growth model, which shows the characteristics of aging population, insufficient demand for investment consumption, high export contribution, domestic savings, foreign exchange reserves, and long -term high levels of public debt. In 2010, Japan's unemployment rate has exceeded 5%for two consecutive years, and the proportion of labor population accounted for 59.6%of historical lowest points, especially public debt accounted for more than 200%of GDP. If this earthquake is added, this earthquake In the impact, can this economic growth model in Japan continue? Will you be trapped in the sovereign debt crisis and have a huge negative impact on the global capital market, foreign exchange market, and the currency market? It is worthy of our high attention.

It is self -evident that in the history of human development, the frequency of natural disasters not only severely damage the wealth stock accumulated by human beings, threatens the environment of human survival, but also continues to promote the deep -level reflection of people and people and The relationship between nature, people and people and people and society.

From the perspective of the country's level, Chen Yulu believes that China should have advanced strategic thinking and a wide humanistic vision, crossing the crisis, and thinking about how to establish and lead the correct worldview and human view from the perspective of the healthy development of human society and the healthy development of human society and the healthy development of human society. Essence The exploration of reform and opening up for more than 30 years has successfully launched the "China Development Model" as China, which has successfully created the "China Development Model". One of its core achievements: First, successfully introduced the modern market economy system, the efficiency and innovative thinking of the western market economy, The combination of Chinese national conditions; the second, always adheres to the model of progressive reform; third, it has given full play to the three major advantages, namely labor resources, market resources and national systems, the successful hosting of the Olympic Games, the successful rescue of the Wenchuan earthquake and the The advantages of the system are closely related. Unlike, Japan is a typical country that is a typical "strong market and weak government" and is very stable in society. Both modes have remarkable points.

Chen Yulu said that judging from the actual effects of Japan's rescue after this earthquake, it is not difficult to find that in the increasingly deeper modern and complex social management of globalization, a country with stronger countries will be of great control. Of course, this does not mean that we want to abandon the efficiency and innovative thinking of the Western market economy. In fact, the east -west civilization has its own length and complementary advantages. We can promote or lead the healthy development of human society only by the clever integration of the two and tolerance.

When talking about China's strategy to participate in crisis rescue, Chen Yulu believes that China should give full play to the advantages of public diplomacy and actively participate in crisis rescue with the spirit of humanitarianism and mutual assistance. Just like the last round of the euro zone sovereign debt crisis, China took the initiative to assist the trapped countries and the recent evacuation of Chinese citizens from North Africa, other countries also provided support for China. The use of public diplomacy to laid the foundation of the future of the strategic cooperation between the Chinese and Japanese government's foreign and national strategic cooperation in the future. This is undoubtedly a major opportunity.

Expert interpret

Hong Kong Wenhui News (Reporter Wang Xiaoxue reported in Beijing) For the three -serial disaster of the Japanese earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear leakage, Beijing University of Foreign Languages ​​held a seminar on the "Global Economic Impact of the Great Earthquake in Japan" in Beijing. Beijing experts believe that the Japanese real economy is occupied About 20%to 25%of the proportion of tourism, diet, accommodation and other related industries, or severe blows due to disaster, severely frustration such as the stock market will reduce people's spending power. Preventing Japan's quantitative loose monetary policy (QE) may cause global inflation, but the global economy's stable momentum will not be reversed by this.

Experts such as Chen Yulu, president of Beijing Foreign Studies University agreed that the quantitative easing monetary policy that Japan is currently implemented may promote global inflation. At the stage of a global economic slow recovery, China and other emerging market countries have entered a high period of rising, and the inflation rate is high. It is necessary to cope with the large amount of energy and resource needs brought by Japan's increase in liquidity and post -disaster reconstruction to prevent inflation pressure.

The Japanese crisis does not hinder the world economy

Xu Yiping, director of the Japanese Studies Research Center of Beijing Foreign Studies University, said that nuclear leakage is an accidental blow to Japan. The overall production level of six counties in Northeast China accounts for 6%to 7%of Japan's country. If all of its economic losses are destroyed, it may account for 5%of Japan's GDP. The local automotive cobalt and the three major fishery bases in the sea world will be will It is seriously affected and will also affect the development trend of the world nuclear power. However, on the other hand, the reconstruction process may also become one of the factors that drive Japanese domestic demand, and China and Japan may also strengthen cooperation in the field of non -traditional security.

Guo Qingwang, Dean of the School of Finance and Finance of the People's Congress, also believes that the Japanese economy accounts for 6%of the world economy GDP, which is equivalent to about 0.2%of the global economy. If nuclear radiation is no longer developing, it will not have a great impact on the better recovery of the global economy. In addition, Japan is currently the third largest economy in the world, and whether the world economy will have a huge impact on the real economy. The six counties in Japan accounted for only 6.4%of Japan's GDP. It is questionable whether Japan's economy can decrease from 3.9%last year to 0.9%. However, in terms of chip manufacturing and tourism industry, it will inevitably have an impact on Japan.

As for the global high -level Japanese sovereign debt, experts remind them to pay attention to whether it will cause crisis in the future. Once the crisis becomes reality, it will have a huge impact on the yen and global foreign exchange and capital markets, as well as Chinese foreign reserve management. Essence